Oil cuts may go into 2018, say Saudi Arabia, Russia

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Brent crude oil, the worldwide benchmark, is steady around $49 a barrel, after dropping by as much as 10 per cent last week in a move seen as a sign traders have grown impatient with Opec's attempts to mop up a near three-year old surplus.

If not extended, according to the agreement, the current deal would expire in June.

OPEC's original agreement on revised production levels was reached on November 30 a year ago and always subject to review in the normal way at the organisation's next scheduled ministerial conference on May 25.

Many analysts now see USA crude output heading toward 10 million bpd over the next year. While Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Citigroup Inc. see the market tightening and say the recent selloff wasn't based on fundamentals, concerns remain about the pace of rising US supply.

Falih said recent price falls had been caused by seasonal low demand and refinery maintenance, as well as by non-OPEC production growth, especially in the United States.

PREMIUM TIMES gathered that the development came as USA shale confounded OPEC's attempts to prop up prices.

"The producer coalition is determined to do whatever it takes to achieve our target of bringing stock levels back to the five-year average", Al-Falih was reported as saying.

We keep hearing about shale oil production but offshore production in the Gulf of Mexico hit a record, bringing total USA output to 9.3 million barrels a day, its highest since August 2015 according to Reuters.

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There were comments from Russian Energy Minister Novak that Russia would support the extension of production cuts beyond the end of 2017 if needed which provided some degree of support for oil prices.

Brent crude, the benchmark for more than half the world's oil, is projected to average $52.60 this year, a decrease from the prior estimate of $54.23.

"US oil production surpassed expectations in terms of an early bottoming and swift uptick, and is set to expand further based on the latest drilling momentum", said Norbert Ruecker, head of macro and commodity research at Julius Baer. "I expect we (Nigeria) will get OPEC exemption but one year from now will it be renewed?"

A statement by Saudi energy minister on extension of oil cut agreement will be good news Nigeria, PREMIUM TIMES can report. They profit when they buy cheap after having sold the borrowed securities at higher prices.

The producers may agree the cuts at their next ministerial meeting on May 25, it said.

There are also lingering concerns about a potential slowdown of the Chinese economy, which has acted as a core pillar of oil demand growth.

It sees 2018 output at 9.96 million barrels a day, up 0.6% from the previous forecast.

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