According to private weather forecasters, El Nino is likely to play a role again, leading to rainfall slightly below the average this year.
The first India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast for the 2017 southwest monsoon, which accounts for about 70% of the country's annual precipitation, is expected on Tuesday.
"Above normal" monsoon is between 104-110% of the LPA and anything beyond 110% is considered "excess". IMD issues another updated forecast in June. There is almost 38% probability of mere normal rainfall in India in 2017.
Bloomberg reported that India's 6.97% 2026 government bonds were trading at 6.85% afer IMD's announcement as against 6.89% earlier in the day.
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Monsoon 2017 will be qualitatively 96 percent of long-period average (LPA), with a model error of plus or minus 5 per cent, IMD said.
"India is in for a normal monsoon which will be good for agriculture and economy", KJ Ramesh, the director general of IMD, told reporters in the long-range forecast for 2017. In the last bi-monthly policy review on April 6, the Reserve Bank of India had said, "Since the February bi-monthly monetary policy statement, inflation has been quiescent".
The date of the monsoon's onset into Kerala will be announced in late May, he added.




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